Saturday, October 01, 2005

Another prediction of a real estate slowdown

A recent article in the Los Angeles Times titled "Peak for Housing Said to Be Near" cites the UCLA Anderson Forecast as predicting a slowdown in the housing market. In it's latest quarterly outlook, the UCLA Anderson Forecast quotes senior UCLA economist Christopher Thornberg as saying:

"The forecast for California is mediocre at best; at worst we are liable to dip into another recession."

Still, Thornberg admits this does not necessarily mean housing prices will go down, but rather the upward trend will slow.

(Our note: to some, when housing prices do not escalate in double-digit fashion, they perceive this as a downward move in the real estate market.)

The Los Angeles Times article states "Although UCLA forecasters have consistently been more pessimistic about the housing boom and California's economy than many other analysts, their views are notable because they were among the first economists to predict the 2001 recession and to identify the current housing boom as a bubble. UCLA economists have said signs of housing speculation were emerging as early as 2002 — and since then the median California home price has risen 71%, from $266,000 to $456,000."

To read the online article about this quarterly forecast, please go here. The quarterly forecast is not yet posted to the UCLA Anderson Forecast website, but we assume it will be in the future. You might want to check back with their website to read the full content of their report.

And, if you would like to read the second quarter forecast report, please visit the UCLA Anderson Forecast website here.

We thank Richard Lohrey, Ruland Financial Group for bringing this information to our attention!

And, if you have any suggestions for information we can share, please email us.

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